Massive growth predicted for e-bikes

Here's some fascinating research on the rise of e-bikes from Deloitte: E-bikes have made it into the list of top technology predictions for 2020. A friend at a major OEM wheel supplier to the global bike industry echoed this trend. E-bikes are getting better every year, moving from dorky niche gadgets to mainstream, sleek rides. I want one!

Even Yamaha has some interesting products in the pipeline, and has collaborated with Honda to develop standardized battery/charger systems:



Of course, e-bikes pose challenges to the traditional bike retailers and supply chains. As with electric cars, the current landscape of bike dealers and mechanics does not seem to be well-prepared to support an electric revolution. The bike controls, wiring, battery, and motor systems present new types of problems requiring new knowledge and skills to fix and new supply chains to deal with the more comprehensive overhauls and waste. If I was running a bike shop, I'd be thinking hard about how to sell and provide long-term support for technology that may become obsolete in only a few years. We need better systems in place to ensure that if you buy an e-bike today, with reasonable maintenance you can expect to get 8-15 reliable years out of it (similar to a regular mechanical bike) before the whole platform warrants replacement. The shops that figure this out will have a good business future.

If we can solve the battery/range issue, e-bikes and e-motorcycles could also radically transform our urban spaces and how we use them. For example, the current trend towards self-driving and electric cars could eventually mean that major highways become the exclusive domain of automated vehicles. Motorbikes (electric or ICE) may eventually be restricted to secondary or non-automated roadways unless someone figures out how to feasibly make a two-wheeled vehicle self-driving and safe. Taking this concept further, urban roads may end up segregated into low-speed bike lanes, traditional roads for faster motorized/licensed vehicles (cars, fast e-bikes, etc.), and restricted-access 5G-networked highways for autonomous and self-driving vehicles.

In the meantime, I'm going to continue to enjoy the freedom to ride (almost) anywhere while avoiding the 4-lanes highways because they are already not a welcome place for bikes.